Saturday, August 26, 2006

Decreasing Ocean Temperatures

There are a number of interesting assumptions on AGW and increased sea temperatures for enhanced icemelt,cyclones and hurricanes.What is now unusual is the publication of a paper that finds instead of increasing sea surface temperatures the ocean has lost 20% of the increased temperature from the last 50 years between 2003-2005.

The recent decrease in heat content amounts to an average cooling rate of -1.0 ± 0.3 W/m2 from 2003 to 2005, and results in a lower estimate of average warming from 1993 to 2005 than that recently reported for the 1993 to 2003 period [Willis et al., 2004].

It is important to note that this decrease causes greater uncertainty in the long-term warming rate because the cooling reflects interannual variability that is not well represented by a linear trend. This cooling event, as well as the cooling in the early 1980s, illustrates the importance of accounting for interannual variability when determining long-term rates of ocean warming.

Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean
John M. Lyman1,2,3, Josh K. Willis4, and Gregory C. Johnson
Geophysical Research Letters

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