Saturday, January 06, 2007

The sun arraigned as suspect in Global Warming.

The Nationalpost has an interesting article that will send the tongues a wagging as it did when first released by the Royal Society.As any document that challenges the scriptures of the Grand Academy of Lagado as described by Jonathon Swift presciently..

"In the school of political projectors, I was but ill entertained, the professors appearing, in my judgment, wholly out of their senses; which is a scene that never fails to make me melancholy. These unhappy people were proposing schemes for persuading monarchs to choose favourites upon the score of their wisdom, capacity, and virtue; of teaching ministers to consult the public good; of rewarding merit, great abilities, and eminent services, of instructing princes to know their true interest, by placing it on the same foundation with that of their people; of choosing for employment persons qualified to exercise them; with many other wild impossible chimeras, that never entered before into the heart of man to conceive; and confirmed in me the old observation, that there is nothing so extravagant and irrational which some philosophers have not maintained for truth."
Jonathan Swift (1667-1745), Anglo-Irish satirist. "A Voyage to Laputa," pt. 3, ch. 6, Gulliver's Travels (1726).

Swift's Laputans excel in theoretical learning; the abstractions of "higher mathematics" are their meat and drink. They can solve equations—but they cannot build houses, because of the "contempt they bear to practical geometry, which they despise as vulgar and mechanic". Unfortunately their theoretical learning is too abstruse and "too refined for the intellectuals of their workmen ".

And so to speak the prophecies prescribed by the new Grand Academy of Lagoda(IPCC)remain as always in the virtual world and do not reflect the Physics of reality.

Man produces greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases cause global warming, most scientists agree, but how, exactly, do greenhouse gases cause global warming? While theories abound, as do elaborate computer models incorporating a multitude of gases and other climatic factors, none has been conclusive. And if greenhouse gases aren't responsible, what else could be? A clear, verifiable mechanism showing how a greenhouse gas or other physical entity can drive climate change has eluded science. Until now.

For more than a decade, Henrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Center has been pursuing an explanation for why Earth cools and warms. His findings -- published in October in the Proceedings of the Royal Society -- the mathematical, physical sciences and engineering journal of the Royal Society of London -- are now in, and they don't point to us. The sun and the stars could explain most if not all of the warming this century, and he has laboratory results to demonstrate it. Dr. Svensmark's study had its origins in 1996, when he and a colleague presented findings at a scientific conference indicating that changes in the sun's magnetic field -- quite apart from greenhouse gases -- could be related to the recent rise in global temperatures. The chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change, the chief agency investigating global warming, then castigated them in the press, saying, "I find the move from this pair scientifically extremely naive and irresponsible." Others accused them of denouncing the greenhouse theory, something they had not done.

Svensmark and his colleague had arrived at their theory after examining data that showed a surprisingly strong correlation between cosmic rays --highspeed atomic particles originating in exploded stars in the Milky Way -- and low-altitude clouds. Earth's cloud cover increased when the intensity of cosmic rays grew and decreased when the intensity declined.

Low-altitude clouds are significant because they especially shield the Earth from the sun to keep us cool. Low cloud cover can vary by 2% in five years, affecting the Earth's surface by as much as 1.2 watts per square metre during that same period. "That figure can be compared with about 1.4 watts per square metre estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the greenhouse effect of all the increase in carbon dioxide in the air since the Industrial Revolution," Dr. Svensmark explained.

As part of their review for the IPCC AR4 on solar and cosmic variables and the relationship to climate we see the following findings for the Hadley climate centre.

• High energy particles, such as galactic cosmic rays and solar protons are modulated by the 11-year solar cycle and by short-term (hours to days) solar changes. In some cases, high energy particles penetrate to the surface, which presents the possibility of atmospheric radiative changes linked to the particles’ passage through the stratosphere and troposphere. Changes in atmospheric ionisation at the surface can be caused by substantial solar changes.

• Aerosol microphysics, such as particle nucleation, coagulation, and scavenging can be expected to be modified through changes in cosmic ray ion production.

• There is detailed theoretical support for ultrafine aerosol production in the atmosphere from ions, in the regions where there is condensable vapours with no substantial competing vapour sinks. Large cluster ions, which are expected in the initial phase of particle formation, have also been detected in the free troposphere. The combination of theoretical prediction and supportive (but preliminary) experimental atmospheric results now gives reasonable confidence that particle formation occurs from ions in the troposphere, and therefore from cosmic rays. The geographical distribution of particle formation and its frequency is not known with any confidence.

• Charging of aerosol particles and droplets occurs on the particle and cloud boundaries, related to global circuit properties. Theory supports the enhanced removal of charged particles to cloud droplets, even at low particle charge levels. There is some basis for an effect of charged aerosol on freezing of super-cooled clouds through electro-scavenging, but this has not been experimentally demonstrated in the atmosphere.

• Currents flow in the global atmospheric electrical system as a result of the partial electrical conductivity of air, caused mainly by cosmic ray ionisation. The global atmospheric electrical circuit drives vertical electric currents in fair weather regions.It provides a global teleconnection, communicating atmospheric electrical changes throughout the stratosphere and troposphere, down to the surface.

• Cloud-retrievals from the ISCCP satellite program show a strong correlation between low liquid water clouds with galactic cosmic rays from July 1983 to September 1994. Without detailed model calculations combining the aerosol and cloud microphysics and estimating the effects, it is not possible to be sure whether the correlation results from a direct cosmic ray effect on low clouds, or has another origin. If a calibration correction to the data is accepted, on the basis of the absence of a polar orbiting satellite, the correlation continues until September 2001; there is some recent evidence that the correlation is stronger at high latitudes than low latitudes.

• Cosmic rays and Total Solar Irradiance variations are often closely correlated. This relationship has been used to infer past TSI changes. However it also means that cosmic ray and TSI signals may be ambiguous on some timescales: which has implications for the use of cosmogenic isotopes as proxies. The proxies actually measure the cosmic ray variations. Consequently if cosmic-ray induced aerosol microphysics changes couples strongly through to clouds, climate signals attributed through proxies to solar TSI changes could also be explained by a direct atmospheric effect of cosmic rays.

A Review of The Influence of Solar Changes
on the Earth’s Climate
L. J. Gray, J. D. Haigh, R. G. Harrison

Consequently the Jury has not reached a consenus,it has not even left the room as the scientific parameters are subjected to objective discourse.


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