Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Global warming postponed time for a Tea break (lukewarm)

There seems to be an incessant rush,to implement grand schemes mostly excessive taxation regimes ( stealth taxes) at a time when there are limited technology substitutions due to the lag phase of implementation.

At a time when the worlds economic structure is far from equilibrium( ie it has not found its bottom or more correctly,its attractor.Non linear systems have preferred states called attractors in mathematics)

As we observed an exogenous forcing such as an additional taxation regime will enhance the instability,most probably for decades.

In an interesting paper Has the climate recently shifted?
Kyle L. Swanson Anastasios A. Tsonis 2009

We see the reality of the present.

This paper provides an update to an earlier work that showed specific changes in the aggregate time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability serve as a harbinger of climate shifts. Specifically, when the major modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability are synchronized, or resonate, and the coupling between those modes simultaneously increases, the climate system appears to be thrown into a new state, marked by a break in the global mean temperature trend and in the character of El Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation variability. Here, a new and improved means to quantify the coupling between climate modes confirms that another synchronization of these modes, followed by an increase in coupling occurred in 2001/02. This suggests that a break in the global mean temperature trend from the consistent warming over the 1976/77–2001/02 period may have occurred.

Insofar as the global mean temperature is controlled by the net top-of-the-atmosphere radiative budget [IPCC 2007], such breaks in temperature trends imply discontinuities in that budget. Such discontinuities are difficult to reconcile with the presumed smooth evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative forcing with respect to time [Hansen et al. 2005]. This suggests that an internal reorganization of the climate system may underlie such shifts [Zhang et al. 2007].


Tsonis et al. (2007) applied concepts of the theory of synchronized chaos to show that the extrema associated with the 70-yr GST cycle are special in a dynamical sense and are thus likely to be parts of internal, rather than forced variability

Ghil et al(2008) details the uncertainties

The last IPCC report has investigated climate change as a result of various scenarios of CO2 increase for a set of 18 distinct GCMs. The best estimate of the temperature increase at the end of the 21st century from AR4 is about 4.0 C forthe worst scenario of greenhouse-gas increase, namely A1F1, this scenario envisages, roughly speaking, a future world with a very rapid economic growth. The likely range of end-of century increase in global temperatures is of 2.4–6.4 C in this case, and comparably large ranges of uncertainties obtain for all the other scenarios as well]. The consequences of these scientific uncertainties for the ethical quandaries arising in the socio-economic and political decision-making process involved in adaptation to and mitigation of climate changes are discussed in An essential contributor to this range of uncertainty is natural climate variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. As mentioned already in [10], most GCM simulations do not exhibit the observed interdecadal variability of the oceans’ buoyancy-driven, thermohaline circulation [11]. This circulation corresponds to a slow, pole-to-pole motion of the oceans’ main water masses, also referred to as the overturning circulation. Cold and denser waters sink in the subpolar North Atlantic and lighter waters rise over much wider areas of the lower and southern latitudes.

Indeed
Sensitivity to the initial conditions-the principle signature of deterministic chaos-is thus not an artifact arising from when lower order models are used but is, rather, deeply rooted in the physics of the atmosphere.

Nicolis and Nicolis Foundations of complex systems page 223

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