Saturday, August 26, 2006

Decreasing Ocean Temperatures

There are a number of interesting assumptions on AGW and increased sea temperatures for enhanced icemelt,cyclones and hurricanes.What is now unusual is the publication of a paper that finds instead of increasing sea surface temperatures the ocean has lost 20% of the increased temperature from the last 50 years between 2003-2005.

The recent decrease in heat content amounts to an average cooling rate of -1.0 ± 0.3 W/m2 from 2003 to 2005, and results in a lower estimate of average warming from 1993 to 2005 than that recently reported for the 1993 to 2003 period [Willis et al., 2004].

It is important to note that this decrease causes greater uncertainty in the long-term warming rate because the cooling reflects interannual variability that is not well represented by a linear trend. This cooling event, as well as the cooling in the early 1980s, illustrates the importance of accounting for interannual variability when determining long-term rates of ocean warming.

Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean
John M. Lyman1,2,3, Josh K. Willis4, and Gregory C. Johnson
Geophysical Research Letters

Friday, August 25, 2006

Global Cooling

Global cooling could develop on Earth in 50 years and have serious consequences before it is replaced by a period of warming in the early 22nd century, a Russian scientist said Friday.

Environmentalists and scientists today focus on the dangers of global warming provoked by man's detrimental effect on the planet's climate, but global cooling - though never widely supported - is a theory postulating an overwhelming cooling of the Earth which could involve glaciation.

"On the basis of our [solar emission] research, we developed a scenario of a global cooling of the Earth's climate by the middle of this century and the beginning of a regular 200-year-long cycle of the climate's global warming at the start of the 22nd century," said the head of the space research sector of the Russian Academy of Sciences' astronomical observatory.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century - when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland - could start in 2012-2015 and reach its peak in 2055-2060.

He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today because "climate cooling is connected with changing temperatures, especially for northern countries."

"The Kyoto initiatives to save the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off until better times," he said, referring to an international treaty on climate change targeting greenhouse gas emissions.

"The global temperature maximum has been reached on Earth, and Earth's global temperature will decline to a climatic minimum even without the Kyoto protocol," Abdusamatov said.

Dr. Abdusamatov he is "chief of the Space Exploration Department of the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian part of the International Space Station,

Mr. Abdusamatov's theory corresponds with the results of the research about the increase of Earth's temperatures in the 20th century, which makes many scientists continue the trend of the future warming. Abdusamatov has made an opposite conclusion about the cold period, which is to follow the warm era. However, both the possible cold and warm weather periods are characterized with a change of Earth's temperature by only one degree celsius.

Pluto, Planets, and relationships with laws and theory.
Recently the International Astronomical Organization, decided to remove the planetary status of Pluto. This left the solar system with eight planets with 4 new entrants under review.

What we have evidenced is the updating of the interpretation of celestial mechanics as laws, to the theory of solar planetary evolution .That is the evolution of the theory of planetary formation, from the various mechanical processes such as gravitational influence and hydrostatic forces.

Pluto did not meet the various laws of the planetary theory, in so far as its location, gravitational proximity to Neptune, and the scalar mechanics of the other celestial bodies.

As an experiment write down the numerical sequence 0,3,6,9,12,24,etc.Add 4 to each number so the progression is 4,7,10,13,etc.Divide each number by 10 so that we have 0.4,0.7,1,1.6,2.8 etc. If we use earth as a base unit 1 as an earth-sun orbital distance this sequence is the distance of orbits from the sun for the planets.

This was published in 1766 by Titius ,His compatriot Bode suggested that the lack of a known planet at 2.8 units suggested there should be one between Mars and Jupiter and in 1801 the minor body Ceres was discovered at 2.8 units. Gravitational influences between Neptune and Jupiter somewhat upset the law but calculations reducing the Jovian scale would see the Neptune orbit readjust. Pluto at 40 units is far away from its position at 77 units.

As with all science conjecture arose between scientists of the Titus-Bode law. Recently two French astronomers found evidence that the rule is a natural consequence of symmetrical properties in planetary formation.

Graner and Dubruelle found that in all models for planetary formation there are two symmetries; rotational invariance, and scale invariance. The former suggesting no matter what direction the cloud of matter revolving around the central star is turned it always looks the same. The second is the clouds and its contents are the same on all scales of length .Modification of the Titus-Bode law saw instead of doubling the initial sequence we multiply by 1.7 ,raise the result by the first power for mercury, the second for Venus etc and multiplying each result by 0.23.

The evolution of the scientific process at work. The modification of the laws to the tentative theory adjusted to correct observations.

Friday, August 11, 2006


III. Enhancing Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving

15. Energy saved is energy produced and is often a more affordable and environmentally responsible option to meet the growing energy demand. Efforts to improve energy efficiency and energy saving contribute greatly to lowering the energy intensity of economic development thus strengthening global energy security. Increased energy efficiency and conservation reduce stress on infrastructure and contribute to a healthier environment through decreased emission of greenhouse gases and pollutants.

16. We will move forward with timely implementation of the Gleneagles Plan of Action. We have instructed our relevant ministers to continue the Dialogue on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development and report its outcomes to the G8 Summit in 2008. We call upon other states, especially fast-growing developing economies, to join the corresponding G8 initiatives. These outcomes can also be relevant to the dialogue on long-term cooperation to address climate change under the UNFCCC. Those of us who have ratified the Kyoto Protocol recognize the role of its flexibility mechanisms in promoting energy efficiency. It is important to engage the private sector and other stakeholders in achieving these ends.

17. A comprehensive approach within the international community to energy saving, energy efficiency and the extension of relevant efforts, including sharing best practices, to the entire energy value chain are important in this respect. For this purpose, we shall undertake to:

-strengthen and elaborate the system of national and multilateral energy efficiency statistics;
consider national goals for reducing energy intensity of economic development to be reported by the end of the year;
-for energy intensive products, encourage the development, extension and deployment of best practice energy efficiency labeling programs, and increase efforts to adopt the most stringent energy efficiency standards that are technically feasible and economically justified. Individual countries should set these standards taking into account national conditions. In this context the IEA initiatives on standby power ("1 Watt" initiative), minimum efficiency standards for television set-top boxes and digital television appliances, energy efficient lighting and fuel-efficient tire program are promising and should be examined in more detail;
-take necessary measures, including financial and tax incentives at home for the promotion of energy-efficient technologies, and the actual use of those available technologies on a wide-scale basis;
-demonstrate leadership at the national level by incorporating energy efficient technologies and practices in government buildings and drawing upon alternative energy resources to help power them;
-raise public awareness about the importance and benefits of energy efficiency and energy saving.
-encourage relevant actions taken by multilateral development banks (МDBs), including EBRD and the World Bank;
-increase the Global Environment Facility's involvement in energy efficiency projects.

18. We will invite the World Bank, the IEA, and other organizations as appropriate to work on improvement of internationally accepted standards, labeling and best practices, and public awareness campaigns, in accordance with their respective mandates and comparative advantages.

19. As part of an integrated approach to the entire resource cycle we reaffirm our commitment to comprehensive measures to optimize the resource cycle within the 3Rs Initiative (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle). In furthering these efforts, we will set targets as appropriate taking account of resource productivity. We will also raise awareness of the importance of energy efficiency and environmental protection through national as well as international efforts.

20. Increasing energy saving and efficiency we will pay more attention to the energy sector itself, which can contribute significantly to this end by reducing losses in production and transportation. Our priority measures in this area will include:
-raising the environmental and efficiency levels for processing hydrocarbons;
-reducing gas flaring to minimal levels and promoting utilization of associated gas;
-improving energy infrastructure, including minimizing oil and oil products losses in transportation and gas emissions from gas systems;
-using methane otherwise released in the atmosphere from coal mining, landfills, and agricultural operations.

21. Since 2/3 of world oil is consumed by the transportation sector and its fuel consumption is outpacing general energy consumption we will pay special attention to this sector of energy demand. For making transportation more energy efficient and environmentally advanced we shall:
-share best practices to promote energy efficiency in the transportation sector;
-develop programs in our respective countries, consistent with national circumstances, to provide incentives for consumers to adopt efficient vehicles, including clean diesels and hybrids; -and introduce on a large scale efficient public hybrid and/or clean diesel transportation systems, where appropriate;
-promote diversification of vehicle energy systems based on new technologies, including significant sourcing from biofuels for motor vehicles, as well as greater use of compressed and liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas and synthetic liquid fuels;
-promote wider use of modern technologies, materials and devices on traditional vehicles, leading to lighter, more aerodynamic and more efficient engines and other transport components such as transmission and steering systems, tires, etc.;
-increase research to develop vehicles using gasoline/hydrogen fuel and hydrogen fuel cells to promote the "hydrogen economy";
-facilitate the development of trans-modal and trans-border transportation, where appropriate;
-study further the Blue Corridor project by the UN Economic Commission for Europe;
-continue to consider the impact of the air transport sector on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions noting international cooperation on these issues.

22. We call upon all countries to offer incentives to increase energy efficiency and to promote energy conservation.

IV. Diversifying Energy Mix

23. Diversification of the energy mix reduces global energy security risks. We will work to develop low-carbon and alternative energy, to make wider use of renewables and to develop and introduce innovative technologies throughout the entire energy sector.

Alternative, Cleaner Low-Carbon Energy 24. We shall further encourage the activities of the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF) aimed at preparing and implementing demonstration projects on CO2 capture and storage and on the development of zero emission power plants. In this context we will facilitate development and introduction of clean coal technologies wherever appropriate.

25. We encourage all oil producing states and private sector stakeholders to reduce to minimal levels natural gas venting or flaring by facilitating the use of associated gas, including its refining and processing into fuels and petrochemical products. In this respect we support the efforts of Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR) and Methane-to-Markets Partnership (M2M) to implement projects on the production of marketable methane from landfills, agriculture waste and coal-bed methane, particularly in developing countries.

26. We support the transition to the Hydrogen Economy, including in the framework of the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE). A critical part of this effort is to develop common international standards in the field of commercial development of hydrogen power, infrastructure and security requirements.

Nuclear Energy

27. We recognize that G8 members pursue different ways to achieve energy security and climate protection goals.
28. As we meet on the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident, we reiterate the commitments made during the 1996 Moscow Summit on Nuclear Safety and Security, and the paramount importance of safety, security and non-proliferation.
29. Those of us who have or are considering plans relating to the use and/or development of safe and secure nuclear energy believe that its development will contribute to global energy security, while simultaneously reducing harmful air pollution and addressing the climate change challenge:
The development of innovative nuclear power systems is considered an important element for efficient and safe nuclear energy development. In this respect, we acknowledge the efforts made in the complementary frameworks of the INPRO project and the Generation IV International Forum.

Until advanced systems are in place, appropriate interim solutions could be pursued to address back-end fuel cycle issues in accordance with national choices and non-proliferation objectives.
Benefits will stem from improving the economic viability of nuclear power. We recognize that independent effective regulation of nuclear installations is essential for the development of infrastructure supporting safe and secure nuclear energy.

30. We are committed to:
further reduce the risks associated with the safe use of nuclear energy. It must be based on a robust regime for assuring nuclear non-proliferation and a reliable safety and security system for nuclear materials and facilities;
ensure full implementation of the international conventions and treaties in force today which are a prerequisite for a high level of safety and a basis to achieve a peaceful and proliferation-resistant nuclear energy use. The responsibility of all nations to support the work of the IAEA and all measures to implement these conventions and treaties in these fields is emphasized;
continue to consider nuclear safety and security issues in the Nuclear Safety and Security Group (NSSG).

31. We reaffirm the objective set out in the 2004 G8 Action Plan on Non-Proliferation to allow reliable access of all countries to nuclear energy on a competitive basis, consistent with non-proliferation commitment and standards. Building on that plan, we intend to make additional joint efforts to ensure reliable access to low enriched uranium for power reactor fuel and spent fuel recycling, including, as appropriate, through a multilateral mechanisms provided that the countries adhere to all relevant international non-proliferation commitments and comply with their obligations.

32. In this respect, we take note of recent potentially complementary initiatives put forward in the IAEA framework regarding multilateral fuel supply assurances, as well as the proposals made by Russia and the U.S., aimed at further development of peaceful nuclear energy, in a manner that promotes proliferation resistance of the nuclear fuel cycle, including preventing the spread of sensitive nuclear technologies. end

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