Saturday, July 21, 2007

Dancing with the Stars,skirting the issues on Solar Variance.

There has been much discussion on the recent paper by Lockwood and Froelich on the ability of solar variance to alter the energy balance of the earth,.The primary failings of the paper is to address the mechanisms and the variation of the climate drivers such as UV and higher energy spectra that are the causes of climate variability.

Reliance of the PMOD reconstructions and the “steady state’ solar models of Lean et al which use data of dubious quality and uncertified radiometers such as TIM, which failed its NIST as recently as December bring substantial questions on the “reality of truths” promulgated by these authors.The skiting of the coupling mechanisms by these left footed dancers sees the flows of the dress of the graceful ballerina(pictured)divested as they "square the circle"using some interesting "Enron school of accounting methodologies".Fortunately they will reduced to "yesterdays newspaper"status after the Zveniiorrod Symposium New Insights into Solar-Terrestrial Physics in November.

There are a number of flawed assumptions on the adequacy of GCM models to accurately reflect the exogenous variable forcing’s such as solar. The assumed parameters of solar variance are normally based on the visible wavelength oscillations or the seasonal oscillations of TSI and vertical energy transport through some simplistic equations. Measurements and analysis is usually undertaken on 1 or 2 parameters and the simplistic models used in GCM do not reflect the observations or indeed the rapid changes in the external energy budget by transformation of species.

GCM are also inadequate in modeling climate variability and T for predicting global climate patterns. Inadequacies are seen in the assimilation of chemical parameterization due to the different physics of chemical thermo diffusion and new chemical reactions that are observed due to exogenous forcings such as galactic and solar radiation across all spectrums.

The failure of GCM models to identify the secondary and tertiary energy variables (photochemical) sees Lipschitz continuity becoming unstable due to these small energy inputs. Therefore as the models are sensitive to initial conditions, assimilation of these chemical parameters and inverse solar variance is a necessary component for climate models.

In Simplistic terms the reconstructions consider the sun to be a heat engine that has an on/off switch with oscillations from each state .In reality there are three states on/off/ and both

The “heat engine” of the Sun is closely related to convective and radiation transfer of free energy in the solar interior, which proceeds basically at low Mach– Alfven numbers,i.e., at a relatively small involvement of the magnetic field. The solar “dynamo” in this sense is a product rather than prime cause of solar activity. The latter in this broader meaning is understood as a fundamental property of a star with relatively small variability of energy release and transfer in its interiors against the background of much greater steady energy flux supported by nuclear fusion processes in gravitationally confined core of the Sun. From this point of view the phenomena considered on the Sun are an example of a complex self-organization in a non-equilibrium open physical system with the fluxes of free energy and mass. The “magnetic degree of freedom” from this standpoint is subordinate and controlled by other, more powerful global processes. However, locally in some areas and at some time intervals this degree of freedom can be predominant over others, which is the case during flares. Here, we deal with all manifestations of well-known general laws of physics, characteristic for nonlinear processes with dissipation.

There are a number of ways the sun effects climate.
-A change in the solar constant of (wavelength) irradiance output.
-Changes in ultraviolet irradiance that modulates temperature, atmospheric chemistry, and climatic dynamics such as precipitation and cloud formation .
-Indirect and indirect influences by solar radiation and cosmic radiation(galactic)
-Changes in magnetic and gravitational constants(solar).

The solar activity in all its manifestations is subject to regular and irregular chaotic variations in quite large ranges of amplitudes, durations, and other characteristics that have revealed themselves some way in the time intervals under analysis. This general rule does not exclude coronal mass ejections and flares, sunspots etc which represent with respect to each other not the cause and effect (sometimes, such an unjustified assumption is made),but rather two observable manifestations of a single dissipative process related to an increased transport of free energy from the interiors of the Sun outwards into its upper atmosphere and heliosphere and dispersal into space and the solar system. This free energy is redistributed in thermal, magnetic, kinetic, gravitational, and radiation forms, their relative fractions being changed from event to event depending on the situation determined by the boundary conditions and initial state.

The second important remark can be made that any adequate description of physics of the processes involved is possible only taking into account the transport of energy, momentum, and mass in considered open systems with their complex space-time structure of corresponding flows. In this case the conceptions of equilibrium and stability of isolated system can serve as useful idealization only in the simplest cases, as well as models of replenishment from above, below, or from side of the considered segment. In general, the main difficulty is that there are no sufficient observational data in order to separate such isolated system and thus to localize the consideration of causes and effects.

The sun belongs to the class of stable stars, and the radiation output does not vary by more then several parts of one percent. Much phenomena in the earths atmosphere , magnetosphere and in the interplanetary space are highly changeable. This paradox is explained by the fact that although solar energy is originally produced in the form of radiation energy, it subsequently undergoes a series of transformations, a result it transfers energy to the terrestrial environment in different species and energy levels.

Solar energy is radiated into space in two forms,as electromagnetic radiation energy over a wide range of wavelengths,and as kinetic and thermal energy of the solar wind plasma.The former freely propogates through interplanetary space, and only undergoes some changes in the atmospheres of the earth and other planets.In contrast to this the solar wind plasma energy is continually transferred from one form to another,The most effective process of energy conversion takes place within the interplanetary shocks,in magnetic barrier regions,and in magnetic field reconnection layers.

We can now observe four mechanisms that affect the global climate.

1. Extraterrestrial drivers,
2. The global atmospheric electric circuit,
3. Atmospheric dynamics and chemistry,
4. Synthesis of atmospheric processes,

(1) Extraterrestrial drivers. The electromagnetic radiation output from the Sun is wavelength dependent and varies on the time scale of minutes during solar flares to recurring sunspot activity with the solar rotation period 26-28 days, the solar cycle 11 years, and the solar magnetic cycle 22 years. While the total solar irradiance varies by 0.1 % from minimum to maximum solar activity, the solar fluxes in the UV and X-ray spectral bands vary from 10 % up to a factor100, respectively. The radiation in the UV is absorbed by atmospheric molecular oxygen and ozone, and thereby influences the radiative balance of the stratosphere, which affects its thermal and dynamical structure and the climate on the Earth. The radiative balance of the stratosphere and the mesosphere may also be influenced by atmospheric chemical composition changes associated with the precipitation of energetic electrons which are accelerated in the solar corona or in interplanetary co rotating interaction regions. These co rotating interaction regions of the solar wind are particularly well developed during minimal solar activity and produce recurring bursts of high energy electrons with the solar rotation period 26-28 days.

Energetic charged particles from the Sun are accelerated in the solar corona during solar flares or in the co rotating interaction regions and constitute part of the solar wind. The magnetic field of the heliosphere scatters the background cosmic ray flux and results in a decrease of secondary neutron production in the atmosphere during maximum solar activity. The strongest variability of energetic charged particles exhibits a burst like structure on the time scales of minutes to days, and is associated with radio blackouts, Forbush decreases, and large geomagnetic field variations, which are often used as a proxy measure for particle precipitation. Since energetic charged particles are guided along the geomagnetic field lines, their atmospheric effects are latitude dependent and strongest in the polar regions. High energy electrons can be accelerated in the magnetosphere and precipitate during geomagnetic storms down to the thermal ionospheric plasma at middle and high latitudes.

(2) Global atmospheric electric circuit. Many of the observational parameters of solar terrestrial relationships are connected to the global atmospheric electric circuit and its current density variability, which influences cloud microphysical properties. It is hence important to develop an integrated model of the global atmospheric electric circuit with many of the possible influences included according to their relative contributions. To lend further credibility to the global circuit concept, it is intended to set up a global network of atmospheric electric field measurements, supported by regional and local arrays of measurement instruments to determine spatial charge structures and temporal aeroelectric disturbances. The atmospheric electrification has an effect on cloud microphysical properties. Experimental studies of ultrafine particle formation from ions and the increase of collection rates of ice nuclei from particle electrification in supercooled clouds are needed to determine a hierarchy of models. The models consider microphysical mechanisms in clouds, their radiative properties and the significance for electrically modulated cloud effects on climate.Electrical discharge phenomena above thunderstorms are known as transient luminous events,

(3) Atmospheric dynamics and chemistry. The ionised plasma component of the atmosphere reflects space weather phenomena on time scales of minutes to many decades associated with the highly variable output of the Sun. The electromagnetic radiation and energetic charged particles from the Sun result in atmospheric chemistry changes with a strong influence on the radiative budget of the various ionospheric layers in the C, D, E, and F region, which influence the energy balance, the heat transfer, the momentum transport, and the propagation of travelling disturbances such as gravity and planetary waves in the atmosphere.

(4) Synthesis of atmospheric processes. To address the impact of solar variability on the Earth’s weather and climate, it is intended to develop general circulation models which include not only the troposphere and the stratosphere but extend up to the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere. While the troposphere and stratosphere are essential to study the dynamical response to solar radiation variability, chemical processes in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere associated with Lyman-α and energetic charged particle precipitation require an extension of global circulation models above the mesopause. The coupling of global circulation models with interactive ocean models and sophisticated radiation schemes makes it possible to describe the radiative transfer of the solar spectrum from the UV to the near infrared. Such models are useful, e.g.for distinguishing the different roles of UV and cosmic ray induced oceanic low cloud cover, and especially for the investigation of solar variability and its influence on the climate of planet Earth.

When we can resolve the radiative properties of these mechanisms and incorporate them into coupled models then we will know the accuracy of the GCM to predict the future and not before.


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