Thursday, September 17, 2009

Temperature trends in the South Pacific, some ordinary observations of interest..

“Fear feeds ignorance” said James Lovelock in the Ages of Gaia,*and a great niche was opened for fear when science became incomprehensible to those who were not its practitioners”

Mathematical theory tells us there is am infinite way of describing the average statistic of temperature in a set of observations. Peterson and Vose.(1997) An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Temperature Database found over 100 different averages of temperatures have been used in meteorology and climate studies.

The standard or arbitrary axiom is to use the anomalies (variation) from some arbitrary set of observations (a temporal set of usually around 30 years) and “picture” the variations from today’s weather (usually on a monthly basis) with the moving averages. and explain that this is proof of forthcoming cataclysm.

In reality this is not proof in a mathematical sense, as the mathematical theory of climate (and its variations) is yet to be published

The complexity of both the science and the mathematical description is often perplexing to the “ordinary person” so the graphs pictured are more readily comprehensible we used the set of observations for the New Zealand Airports, stations Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill. Data is from the WMO reported series.

This covers a geographic slice of increasing latitudes of around 1200 kilometers and the trends (station specific) get progressively cooler towards the higher(polar) latitudes.

Auckland 0.0086c/yr (extrapolating to 120 yrs + 1c)
Wellington 0.0016c/yr (extrapolating to 610 yrs+ 1c)
Christchurch -0.00649c/yr (extrapolating to 160 yrs- 1c)
Invercargill -0.076c/yr (extrapolating to 13 yrs -1c)


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