Saturday, April 22, 2006

INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON STATE OF WHEAT
MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND


There is a common miscomprehension of data supplied in scientific papers that measure temperature differentials of co2 levels over wide historical datasets.That they are always accurate and they provide measurement of temperature or climate on a yearly,or decadeal basis.

The temperature datasets of the icecores from vostok etc with measurement of radionucluides are estimates of large segemnts of time scales around 500 yaer intervals with assumptions of mean attributes or variables only.

Whilst we know reasonably accurately what the temperature and climatic history for the last 150 years is at various measurement stations,before that the data models are only best guess assumptions with wide areas of variation.

Data sets that can correlate climatic variation from recorded data are very rare.Jevons in 1875 published in the UK an interesting paper on the price of corn and its variablity due to the 11 year solar cycle and by the price differentials from the Corn exchange.

The cyclical nature of agriculture products is well documented due to adverse climatic conditions and the supply demand function of the market.

There is much dispute recently with the medieval warm period an its abscence from graphics and datasets of models from Mann etc and the IPCC.

In an interesting analsysis of historical datasets an Israeli team have found correaltion of causality of the solar variaiton and the wheat and grain production of medieval england.

The database of Prof. Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in
England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar
activity on the wheat market. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for
sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations,
and compare expected price fluctuations with price variations recorded in medieval
England.


We analyze a direct link
between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17th Century, for which wheat prices
and solar activity data (derived from 10Be isotope) are available. We show that for
all 10 time moments of the solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher
than prices for the correspondent time moments of maximal solar activity (100%
sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). We consider these results as a
direct evidence of the causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.


Another area of discussion also opens with this paper in the correlation of magnetic and gravitational forces on the soalr cycle and its relationship with the orbital process of Jupiter.

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