Saturday, October 14, 2006

A grand solar minimum inducing a temperature decrease on Earth

As we posted here there is increasing evidence of a strong solar minimum and global cooling.The inverse signals are quite clear and documented in the literature.

Sami Solanki and his team at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany, have looked at the concentrations of carbon-14 in wood and beryllium-10 in ice as far back as back 11,000 years ago. The similarity of the fluctuations in both isotopes convinced them that they were seeing effects due to the sun. The peaks and slumps showed a recognisable pattern: "Periods of high solar activity do not last long, perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash," says Weiss. "It's a boom-bust system, and I would expect a crash soon."

A grand solar minimum is approaching and may occur at cycle 25 or at least at cycle 26. We give 6 arguments to support this:
1) The lower and upper rest-latitudes of the boundaries between opposite polarity large scale unipolar regions have approached the equator that much that the various regions interfere
2) The strong violation of the Gnevychev-Ohl rule during cycles 22-23 as predicted by Makarov using the polar butterfly diagrams.
3) Some authors (Makarov, Svalgaard) predict on different bases a maximum Wolf number of about 75 for cycle 24
4) The polar reversal for cycle 23 occurred very late: only after 7.6 year, while for cycles 20-23 this was 5.7 ± 0.3 year.
5) A theoretical consideration based on the energy and the gradients of the angular velocity.

The grand minimum will lead to a temperature decrease which according to various estimates may be about 1 degree.

As we predicted here for the NZ winter (very cold) which was against the warmer then average predicted by Niwa we suggest a very cold winter for the NH .

The low magnetic connection of the sun and earth is now at levels not seen since pre world war 2,there then the experience of NZ was heavy snow.

New Zealand’s worst 20th-century snowstorm

Late July 1939 saw widespread snow when a deep trough lay east of New Zealand, allowing cold south-westerlies to bring Antarctic air over the country. It snowed from Cape Maria van Diemen in the far north to Southland, where flooding occurred when the thaw set in. Dunedin was worst affected. There was snow a metre deep in some of the hill suburbs, which ran short of food. In Auckland on 27 July, 5 centimetres of snow fell on the summit of Mt Eden, and the Bombay Hills shone white for most of the morning.

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