Friday, March 03, 2006

2006 to be a very cold year

Due to a number of cosmic and solar factors namely expected increase of cosmic radiation we can expect a colder winter and colder climatic conditions for 2006.The movement from neutral to La Nina conditions has already occurred as can be observed from the colder winter in eastern europe and north east asia.The lower then average summer temperatures also confirm this with colder water temperatures and one of the coldest Antarctic summers on record.

In a press release, the Geneva-based agency WMO said tempearatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific had been between 0.5 and 1.0 C (0.9 and 1.8 F) below normal since the start of the 2006. "Combined with broader tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere conditions, this is consistent with the early stages of a basin-wide La Nina event," it said.

La Nina, which has the opposite effects to the more notorious El Nino, last occurred from mid-1998 to early 2001. Under La Nina, the sea-surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific falls below normal. This typically brings far dryer weather to the southwestern United States, Florida and western Latin America and above-average rainfall to Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. But there can also be a knock-on much further afield, with an increase to monsoon rainfall in South Asia, unusual coolness in tropical West Africa, Southeast Africa, Japan and the Korean peninsula. La Nina usually lasts nine to 12 months, although "some episodes may persist for as long as two years," the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says on its website.

The WMO sounded a note of caution. The buildup of this La Nina was so exceptionally swift and intense that it was impossible at the moment to infer what the impact would be, and how long the phenomenon would last, it warned. "Most models and expert interpretations favour the event dissipating quite rapidly over the next three to six months," the UN's weather agency said. "Nonetheless, neither a continuation of La Nina beyond mid-year, nor the development of El Nino in the second half of 2006, can be ruled out as possible outcomes from the current prevailing situation." El Nino, which last ran from 2002-3, occurs when warm water builds up in the western tropical Pacific and creeps eastwards, again causing huge disruption to classic patterns of rainfall and wind.

Scientists from the Central Aerological Observatory of the RF hydrometeorological organization Roshydromet and the Lebedev Physics Institute have voiced their views on the subject with expectations of a longer cold period.The long obseved 11 year solar cycle and its intendent colder period is the return to the global norm.


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